|Category||Iowa O: Stat||Iowa O: Rank||Indiana D: Stat||Indiana D: Rank||Advantage|
|3rd Down Conversion||51||10||41.58||81||+|
|Red Zone %||0.88||24||0.92||111||++|
I don't know that I've even seen a breakdown where Iowa had an advantage in every statistical category, and definitely not with the offense (maybe the defense against some terrible team). Iowa should hold a distinct advantage with the ball. Indiana's defense doesn't get a lot of pressure on quarterbacks, so Stanzi should have plenty of time to pick the secondary apart. Indiana has a couple of experienced safeties, but the cornerbacks are a freshman and a converted receiver. McNutt and DJK should be able to get open early and often.
The real question Saturday is if Iowa can establish a run game without Adam Robinson if he is unable to go. I would say, yes...probably. The two past years Iowa has had freshmen running backs go over 100 yards against Indiana (Hampton had 114 yards and 3 TD in 2008 and Wegher had 118 yards a 3 TDs last year). So, maybe Coker can put up similar results. Indiana is giving up over 5 yards per carry and with Iowa's offensive line I think Coker and Roger (or maybe Paki?) will be able to move the ball enough to at least open up the play-action game.
Overall Advantage: Enormous advantage for Iowa if Robinson plays, still big advantage if he doesn't.
Iowa Defense vs. Indiana Offense
|Category||Iowa D: Stat||Iowa D: Rank||Indiana O: Stat||Indiana O: Rank||Advantage|
|3rd Down Conversion||32.43||13||47.83||21||-|
|Red Zone %||0.65||5||0.86||39|
Indiana is an extremely one-dimensional offense. It is Ben Chappell throwing the ball 40 times a game. He throws a lot of quick passes, but will stand in the pocket at go down-field from time to time. I imagine he'll try to exploit Iowa's likely inexperienced linebackers. The Hoosiers have a very good corps of starting receivers. They trio is 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the Big Ten in number of receptions per game. Then they have an extremely talented tight end in Ted Bolser that has been a big target in the redzone. He leads the team with 5 TD receptions.
That said, Indiana has almost no threat to run the ball. Two years ago they switched to the Pistol offense to try to get a downhill rushing attack going, and thus far it hasn't been going anywhere. Chappell is not at all a threat to run (especially with his reported foot injury), and Indiana's best back, Darius Willis, was injured a few weeks ago and is still out. Iowa should be able sit back in coverage and let the defensive line pin their ears back and just go after Chappell. This could lead to turnovers...Chappell has been interception prone in the Big Ten thus far. He has thrown at least 1 interception in each conference game and threw 3 against Illinois.
Overall Advantage: Iowa should have a decent advantage.
Iowa Special Teams vs. Indiana Special Teams
|Category||Iowa ST: Stat||Iowa ST: Rank||Indiana ST: Stat||Indiana ST: Rank||Advantage|
Indiana has been decent on kickoff returns...Tadon Doss is averaging over 25 yards per return, but hasn't taken one back yet. Their punter is not great and has had 2 blocked this year. And, they have actually been worse than Iowa on kickoff coverage allowing almost 25 yards per return (Iowa is only giving up 22 yards).
Overall Advantage: Still have to go against Iowa, though last week was better...slight advantage Indiana.