My efforts to put of meaningful posts has been some what poor this week. Sorry, about that. Hopefully it'll pick up here as the Big Ten season gets rolling. Anyway, unlike Iowa's first 3 opponents, Penn State is in-conference and by means of playing them every year, the Big Ten Network, Adam Rittenberg's blog, even ESPN with GameDay in town...I feel like we all know more about Penn State and I don't really need to do a full on unit-by-unit analysis. So instead, here are some of my general thoughts on the match up.
First, I think this will be a close game. Without breaking everything down, it just seems like these teams are pretty evenly matched.
Defense: Both team's have had very good defenses thus far. They sit 1st and 2nd in the conference in average points allowed and pass yards allowed, 1st and 3rd in total yards and pass efficiency, so basically they are just good defenses.
However, both team's have had their weaknesses exposed in the first 3 games as well. Iowa has been susceptible to long runs...especially on draw plays. The middle of the field on pass plays has also been somewhat open. Penn State's weakness is in the secondary where the team is especially inexperienced.
Injuries: Obviously both team's are currently has injury problems and much has already been said about it. I actually think though, that Penn State's injuries may hurt more. Yes, they are linebacker U, but you can only have so much depth. If Lee and Stupar really are out, or if they are playing not 100% and with Bowman maybe not 100%, then I think Iowa can really exploit this part of the defense. The offensive line is good enough to get to the second level on rushing plays, and Reisner (or Moeaki) and Wegher when we runs routes should be able to get open if they linebackers are not running full speed.
For Iowa, I think Reiff has been playing well enough that Bulaga out doesn't kill the offense. And, I am not at all concerned if DJK doesn't play (he's still a game time decision). This Iowa team is deeper at wide receiver than I can ever remember. If Moeaki can't play, that obviously hurts, but Reisner has played well. The only thing is that his absence kind of limits the 2-TE and even the crazy 3-TE sets that KOK likes to run.
Difference Makers: For Penn State, it's Daryll Clark. He has put this game on his shoulders...he blames himself for last year's game (though he should be giving some credit to the Hawkeyes!) and has basically guaranteed a win tomorrow. My hope is he's putting too much pressure on himself and comes out over zealous and makes a few mistakes.
For Iowa, it's the special teams...Donahue, Murray, Chaney (?!), the whole lot. Iowa's defense should keep this game close and this game (much like last year) could come down to special teams. Donahue should help the field position battle. Penn State will not score many points if they have to drive over 80 yards all day. Also, field goals are vital in close and low scoring games. Penn State's kicker, Wagner, is inexperienced and has struggled a little bit so far, so this is advantage Iowa. If you look at the return stats, Penn State has been horrible. They average only 15 yards per kickoff return. Iowa has not been much better averaging just over 17, but Chaney has been a bright spot on kick and punt returns. In a tough battle, one return for a TD, or even 20+ yards could really change the game.
Final Thoughts: Both teams have a lot to prove in this game. Iowa has the 3rd longest win streak in the nation on the line (and the still aren't ranked!) and wants to prove they are contenders. Penn State is looking for revenge, but also wants to justify its top 10 ranking and prove it can beat non-cream puffs. Anyway, I think it's great that GameDay will be there spotlighting this match up. Hopefully both teams will be able to gain some respect with a national audience and the put on a good showing for the Big Ten.