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Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
September 3, 2011
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A very early look at Michigan

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The Wolverines are Iowa's sixth opponent of the year. This will be the Hawkeye's homecoming game and will be played under the lights at Kinnick with a 7:00 kickoff. Michigan is coming off a 3-9 season, the worst since 1962 when the team went 2-7 and the 5th worst ever. However, 2008 was the first year under head coach Rich Rodriguez and the team was learning a whole new system. This year with the spread fully in place and a boat load of offensive starters returning, the Michigan offense should be better than last year when it averaged less than 300 yards per game and only 20.2 points. The defense was less of a problem last year (except in the 4th quarter, giving up 101 points in 12 games), but only 5 starters return in 2009.

Offense: Key Returning Players

Basically the whole offense is returning from last year and every player should at least have some starting experience. RB Brandon Minor led the team in rushing yards last year and scored 9 touchdowns on the ground and 2 receiving. The two leader receivers from 2008, Martavious Odoms and Greg Mathews also return. The two combined for 84 catches for 852 yards. Odoms was also the team's punt return and returned one for a touchdown. The offensive line returns 7 players with starting experience and should be a veteran line with 3 senoirs (LG Tim McAvoy, RG David Moosman, and LT Mark Ortmann).

Offense: Key Losses
The only starter lost is QB Steven Threet who is transferring to Arizona State. Nick Sheridan did start a few games a quarterback, but it will likely be newcomer Tate Forcier that gets the nod as starter.

Defense: Key Returning Players
Michigan has 3 of the 4 leading tacklers on the team returning in 2009. LB Obi Ezeh led the team with 98 tackles in 2008 and another linebacker Jonas Mouton was second with 76. Coming in at fourth was S Stevie Brown with 64 tackles. Also back is DE Brandon Graham who had a team high 10 sacks and 20 tackles for loss and CB Donovan Warren.

Defense: Key Losses
The biggest loss on defense is FS Brandon Harrison, who was very disruptive in 2008. Harrison was third on the team in tackles and had 7 tackles for loss with of those sacks. Three solid linemen, DE Tim Jamison, DT Will Johnson, and DT Terrance Taylor, are also gone. Though the impact of their losses should be lessened by the switch to a 3-4 scheme under new defensive coordinator Greg Robinson.

Here is Michigan's spring prospectus.

Iowa's tight end tradition under Kirk Ferentz

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In the 10 years of Kirk Ferentz’s tenure as the head coach of Iowa Football, 6 of the 33 players drafted to the NFL have been tight ends. The Hawkeyes have constantly had strong TEs and the starter from each year has gone on to be been drafted since 1999.

YearStarterDraft
1999 Austin Wheatley 2000 round 5
2000 Robert Gallery* 2004 round 1
2001-2002 Dallas Clark2003 round 1
2003 Erik Jensen2004 round 7
2004 Tony Jackson2005 round 6
2004-2006Scott Chandler2007 round 4
2007-2008 Brandon Myers2009 round 6
*This is kind of a cop out…Robert Gallery started at TE for a few games in 2000 but was ultimately moved and drafted as an offensive lineman

Tight ends play a prominent role in the Iowa offense, both as a receiver and a blocker. Iowa TEs have racked up some impressive stats. In 5 of the past 10 years, a TE has gone for at least 400 yards receiving, including Dallas Clark’s 742 yards with 4 touchdowns in 2002 and Scott Chandler’s 591 yards with 6 touchdowns in 2006.

Brandon Myers continued the tradition of drafted TEs this Sunday when he was picked by the Oakland Raiders in the 6th round. In 2008 Myers had 34 receptions for 441 yards and caught 4 touchdown passes. He was often to go-to-guy for QB Ricky Stanzi on third down and made a huge impact in Iowa's upset victory over Penn State catching 2 passes for first downs on the game-winning drive.

Looking forward Iowa has two tight ends with plenty of experience headed into 2009. Brandon Myers may not have had the success he did if it were not for multiple injuries that plagued Tony Moeaki that allowed Myers to step in as the starter. In 2005 Moeaki was rated the number 1 tight end out of high school. In the upcoming season he will resume his starting role and we will get a chance to see if he lives up to his potential…and see if that potential translates to a draft pick. Backing up Moeaki will be Allen Reisner, who had a successful sophomore year with 11 catches for 200 yards.

NFL Draft Recap: 4 Hawkeyes drafted

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After two long days and 256 players getting their names called out, the Hawkeyes ended up with 4 players selected in the NFL Draft. First picked was Shonn Greene by the New York Jet. Greene was the 65th pick overall and the first in the third round. Immediately following Greene was Bradley Fletcher, drafted by the St. Louis Rams. In the fourth round, Seth Olsen's name was called and he is headed to the Denver Broncos. The final Hawkeye selected was Brandon Myers by the Oakland Raiders. Myers was the 202nd pick overall and one of 20 tight ends drafted.
PlayerRoundPick(Overall)Team
Shonn Greene31(65)Jets
Bradley Fletcher32(66)Rams
Seth Olsen432(132)Broncos
Brandon Myers629(202)Raiders

With 4 Hawkeyes selected, Iowa ties for 3rd in the Big Ten with Wisconsin for the most drafted. Ohio State was 1st with 7 players drafted, followed by Penn State with 5. In addition to the 4 drafted, 4 other Hawkeyes ended up being selected in the free agency. Mitch King signed with the Tennessee Titans, Rob Bruggeman signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Andy Brodell signed with the Green Bay Packers, and Matt Kroul joined Shonn Greene by signing with the New York Jets.

Brandon Myers to the Raiders

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Iowa's TE Brandon Myers is headed to the Oakland Raiders. He was drafted at the end of the 6th round and was the 202nd overall draft pick. The Raiders traded their 7th round pick and their 2010 6th round pick to get Myers. He was the 7th player selected by Oakland, and join 2 other receivers, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy, as the Raiders looks to improve their passing game, the worst in the NFL averaging only 148 yards through the air a game. Myers is the 6th TE drafted from Iowa while Kirk Ferentz has been coaching and should fit into the Raider's offense well. The team like to feature the tight end in the passing game and last year TE Zach Miller was the team's leading receiver.

Iowa - Iowa State ticket prices

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The annual Cy-Hawk game will have lower ticket prices this year. Instead of the very high $90 that Iowa State charged in 2007, the tickets will go on sale for $60 a ticket on August 3. The lower ticket prices should increase attendance to the rivalry game which only had an attendance of 49,516 in 2007 (over 7000 less than the Iowa State vs UNI game the week before). Not mentioned in the Des Moines Register article, but according to Iowa State's website, the $60 applies to hillside tickets only.

Seth Olsen to the Broncos

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Iowa offensive lineman Seth Olsen was drafted by the Denver Broncos in the 4th round. He was the 132nd overall pick and the 7th by Denver. So far in the draft, the Broncos have looked to increase their running threat picking up Georgia's quick RB Knowshon Moreno and North Carolina TE Richard Quinn, who is a very solid blocker.

Bradley Fletcher to the Rams

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Bradley Fletcher was the 2nd pick of the third round and is headed to the St. Louis Rams. Fletcher is the second Hawkeye to be drafted, right behind Shonn Greene. Fletcher should be able to make an immediate impact on a defense that was near the bottom in the NFL against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks had a QB rating of 92.5 and averaged over 8 yards per completion. Only Detroit gave up more yards per completion in the NFL last year.

Shonn Greene to the Jets

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Shonn Greene was the first pick in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft on Sunday. He will be heading to the New York Jets. Greene was the 65th overall pick and the fifth running back selected. With Greene still on the table after the first two rounds, the Jets made a trade with the Detroit Lions, giving up their 3rd, 4th, and 7th round picks. Greene was the second pick by the Jets. In the first round the Jets picked QB Mark Sanchez from USC.

The New York Jets currently play home games in Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey which is just is less than a 2 hour drive from Greene's hometown of Sicklerville, New Jersey. Greene is expected to make the drive later today to meet with his new team. He will join a backfield of Thomas Jones, who ran for over 1300 yards in 2008, and Leon Washington, and should fit right in. Head coach Rex Ryan said "this is a young man that I think has the ability to be a starting running back in this league," and "we want to a do a little ground-and-pound on people" when speaking of Greene. More information about the Jets picking Shonn Greene can be found on the Jet's official website.

Shonn Greene Draft Status

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After 2 rounds of the NFL Draft, Iowa RB Shonn Greene has not had his name called. Four backs have already been drafted ahead of Greene, though he won the Doak Walker award for the best running back in 2008. Those drafted so far are: Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Chris Wells, and LeSean McCoy.

A very early look at Arkansas State

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The Red Wolves are coming off a 6-6 2008 season. The started off strong in the season opener with a big win over Texas A&M in the home of the 12th man, which is not an easy place to win. However, ASU struggled on the road the rest of the season going 2-5. Arkansas State will be Iowa's fifth opponent of the year and final non-conference match up when they travel to Iowa City on October 3.

Offense: Key Returning Players
A big contributor to the Red Wolves' offense is RB Reggie Arnold. He has rushed for over 1000 yards in each of the 3 previous season and looks to become only the 8th running back in history to make it all 4 years. Another key starter is QB Corey Leonard. As a junior, Leonard passed for 2347 yards and rushed for another 516. He also really improved his decision making throwing for 16 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions. Compare that too the 24 touchdown and 23 interception in his freshman and sophomore years. ASU also returns its leading receiver, Brandon Thompkins who had 32 receptions for 511 yards in 2008.

Offense: Key Losses
The two key losses for the offense are TE David Johnson and OL Matt Mandich. Johnson had 5 touchdowns and 356 yard receiving last year. Mandich started all four years and was All-Sun Belt 1st team as a junior and senior. A total of 5 starters are not returning.

Defense: Key Returning Players

The Red Wolves held opponents to 23.8 points per game last year and have 8 starters returning. They were led defensively up front by DE Alex Carrington. Carrington led the Sun Belt conference with 19 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks. Also returning is CB M.D. Jennings who was second on the team in tackles with 67 and led the team with 3 interceptions.

Defense: Key Losses
Arkansas State losses its leading tackler LB Ben Owens who had 87 tackles in 2008. Also gone is DE Brian Flagg and CB Dominique Williams.

Here is the ASU section of the Sun Belt's spring prospectus.

Iowa Football Leadership Group

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Iowa has announced the 2009 leadership group. The group looks solid and confirms that players like Ricky Stanzi and Pat Angerer have emerged as leaders over the spring. I like that Marvin McNutt is part of the group. From all accounts it sounds like he had a great spring and has made big stride in his conversion from quarterback to receiver. Over at Black Heart Gold Pants, they are surprised by Adrian Clayborn's inclusion on the group considering the charges against him. Hopefully the Clayborn situation will all work itself out. One good thing to note, though, is that Broderick Binns has shown flashes of great play and is on the leadership group even as the backup defensive end.

Here is the group:

Pat Angerer - LB, Senior, Bettendorf, IA
Broderick Binns - DE, Sophomore, St. Paul, MN
Bryan Bulaga - OL , Junior, Crystal Lake, IL
Greg Castillo - DB, Freshman, Mt. Laurel, NJ
Adrian Clayborn - DE, Junior, St. Louis, MO
A.J. Edds - LB, Senior, Greenwood, IN
Brett Greenwood - DB, Junior, Bettendorf, IA
Marvin McNutt - WR, Sophomore, St. Louis, MO
Tony Moeaki - TE, Senior, Wheaton, IL
Tyler Nielsen - LB, Sophomore, Humboldt, IA
Tyler Sash - DB, Sophomore, Oskaloosa, IA
Ricky Stanzi - QB, Junior, Mentor, OH
James Vandenberg - QB, Freshman, Keokuk, IA

A very early look at Penn State

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On September 26th, Iowa travels to Penn State for a rematch of the best Big Ten game of 2008. Penn State is coming off an 11-2 season that resulted in a Rose Bowl birth. With a favorable schedule (8 home games including Iowa and Ohio State), the Nittany Lions certainly have a chance at repeating last year’s success.

Offense: Key Returning Players
Only 5 starters return on offense. QB Daryll Clark had a breakout year in 2008 passing for 2592 yards and 19 touchdowns. Clark will be the key to Penn State’s offense in 2009. Also returning is RB Evan Royster, who rushed for 1236 yards last year averaging 6.5 yards per carry.

Offense: Key Losses
The whole starting wide receiver corps is gone including standout Derrick Williams who was utilized in many different ways in the Nittany Lion’s offense. Also gone from the group is Deon Butler, who had a team leading 47 receptions, and Jordan Norwood. Three First Team All-Big Ten offensive linemen, OG Rich Ohrnberger, OT Gerald Cadogan, and C A.Q. Shipley, will also not be returning.

Defense: Key Returning Players
The defense has even less coming back with only 4 returning starters. On the line, DT Jared Odrick returns after a season with 4.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. Also returning is LB Navorro Bowman. Bowman led the defense in 2008 with 106 tackles (16.5 for loss) that earned him a consensus First Team All-Big Ten. UPDATE: Bowman has been put on probation for a year. It will be interesting to see his status with the team.

Defense: Key Losses
Much like the receivers on offense, the defense loses its entire secondary. Gone from the secondary is S Anthony Scirrotto who had a very productive career at Penn State. Also leaving is CB Lydell Sargeant, who led the team with 4 interceptions. The defense line also takes a big hit with Aaron Maybin leaving. Maybin had 20 tackles for loss and 12 sacks in 2008 and was a First Team All-American.

No spring prospectus for Penn State, but here is their website: Penn State Football.

Spring recap

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Spring practice is officially over with the spring scrimmage played on Saturday. In these short couple of weeks we have actually learn quite a bit about the 2009 Iowa Hawkeye Football team. The offensive and defensive lines both had 2 starters to replace and their spots are still up for grabs. The wide receiver position has been shaken up with an ex-quarterback, and the running backs are trying to fill avoid left by Shonn Greene. Some of the highlights from spring are:

Spring "Game"

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The Iowa Hawkeyes wrapped upped their spring football practice Saturday with a scrimmage. The game was closed to the public as Kinnick Stadium is in the middle of installing field turf. The On Iowa blog has some quick notes and stats and Hawkmania has some other highlights. The couple of things that stick out to me are: Julian Vandervelde took some snaps at center...a spot that has some more questions with James Ferentz's suspension; DJK didn't get a single pass thrown his way; Jeff Brinson looked good and scored the offense's only touchdown; and all three quarterbacks were good completing a combine 19 of 29 passes (Stanzi was 8 of 11 for 120 yards).

A very early look at Arizona

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Mike Stoops is coming home. Stoops played safety for Iowa in the early 80s. He was on the 1982 Rose Bowl Team, and was a grad assistant and volunteer coach after graduating. He is now the head coach of the Arizona Wildcats, Iowa’s third opponent of the year. The Wildcats are coming off a good 8-5 season that included a big Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl win against BYU and wins over Cal and rival Arizona State. Arizona will bring a powerful spread attack that averaged 36.6 points and over 400 yards per game in 2008. The defense is experienced with 4 seniors and 5 juniors and is led by another Stoops: Mark, another Iowa guy.

Offense: Key Returning Players
The star of the offense is TE Rob Gronkowski, a 3rd team All American. Though his missed a couple of games last year with mono, he still finished the season with 10 touchdown receptions and 672 yards. He was also a larger contributor to the Wildcats’ run game as a blocker. Two wide receivers, Delashaun Dean and Terrell Turner are back and combined with Gronkowski, the receiving corps should be good. Also returning is RB Nic Grigsby, the team leading rusher with 1153 yards. The three starters on the interior line will also be back.

Offense: Key Losses
Arizona loses four starters on offense, and none is bigger than QB Willie Tuitama. The quarterback threw for over 3000 yards last year racking up 23 touchdowns. Replacing Tuitama is a priority, as the leading returning quarterback only had 11 pass attempts last year.

Defense: Key Returning Players
There are 7 returning starters for the Wildcats on defense including the entire defensive line. The leaders of the line will be DE Brooks Reed who had 8 sacks last year, and DT Earl Mitchell. In the secondary, CB Devin Ross returns. Ross had 13 pass break ups and 3 interceptions last year and was 2nd team All Pac-10.

Defense: Key Losses
The four non-returning starters are CB Marquis Hundley, LB Ronnie Palmer, FS Nate Ness, and LB Adrian McCovy. Palmer and Ness are the biggest losses. Both started every game last year and were the team’s two leading tacklers with 85 and 75 tackles respectively. Palmer also had 11 of the team’s 69 tackles for loss in 2008.

For more information on Arizona’s 2009 football team, here is the Spring Prospectus.

Coaches Talk

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Kirk Ferentz, Norm Parker, and Ken O'Keefe all spoke to the press yesterday. They all had a lot of good things to say about the team and how spring practice is coming along. One highlight from yesterday was Parker's quote "We can be as good as last year -- might be better." This is said about a defense that only allowed 13 points a game, giving up only 17 touchdowns all year. O'Keefe had lots to say about the Offensive Line, particularly Dace Richardson who is returning from a knee injury and is "great to see him back. " Kirk Ferentz praised Ricky Stanzi's leadership ability as well as gave an update on Jewel Hampton's minor injury.

A very early look at Iowa State

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Iowa State is coming off a rough couple of seasons and has lost its last 10 games. However, a new coach, Paul Rhoads (a defense coordinator from Auburn…sound familiar?) hopes to turn the program around. The Cyclones definitely could use a boost in their defense which gave up over 35 point per game last year and only held one Big Twelve team (Colorado) under 30. Iowa State ranked in the bottom 10 statistically in scoring defense, total defense, pass defense, and pass efficiency defense. The offense was better and showed flashes, but still was tenth in the conference scoring only 25.3 points per game. New offensive coordinator Tom Herman is installing an up tempo, all shotgun offense that had his previous team, Rice, in the top 10 offensively.

Offense: Key Returning Players
It’s hard to get an accurate number of returning starters as the 2 deeps changed frequently. But at every position the Cyclones return a player with at least some starting experience, including QB Austen Arnaud and RB Alexander Robinson, who together combined for most of ISU’s yards last year. Arnaud had a record setting season passing throwing for 2792 yards and he also ran for another 401 yards. Robinson was the team’s leading rusher with 703 yards on 153 carries. Another bright spot could be the offense line who returns 3 full-time starters, C Alex Alvarez, G Ben Lamaak, G Reggie Stephens, and four others who started at least on game. Other notable players returning are TE Derrick Catlett, WR Houston Jones, and WR Darius Darks who set a freshman record with 49 receptions in 2008.

Offense: Key Losses

The Cyclones biggest loss is WR R.J. Sumrall. He was the team’s leading receiver last year with 57 receptions for 750 yards, including 7 touchdowns. He was also only 1 of 3 players to start every game last year on offense. Another loss is backup RB Jason Scales who had a good career at ISU rushing for 5 touchdowns in his final season.

Defense: Key Returning Players
The defense returns 12 players with starting experience. Most notable are James and Jesse Smith (FS and LB respectively). The Smiths were number 1 and 2 in tackles, both with over 80. Also returning are NG Nate Frere, DE Rashawn Parker, and LB Fred Garrin who all started every game last year.

Defense: Key Losses
About the only major loss is DE Kurtis Taylor. Taylor started every game last year and had a team high 11 tackles for loss.

For more information on Iowa State’s 2009 football team, read the Spring Prospectus.

Introducing…KOK Bot

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A few days ago I posted about the predictability of Ken O’Keefe’s play calling. Since then, I have further analyzed the play calling data from last year and was able to come up with a formula for predicting pass or run for any given play (well almost any play…fourth down is not yet supported). I’ve permanently attached KOK Bot, which takes the current game condition (down, yards to go, field side, yard line, score, and time left in the game) and predicts the play as a pass or a run, to the side bar. [UPDATE: KOK Bot is not longer in the side bar.  The application is on the bottom of this post.] Go ahead an input some game situations and see what KOK Bot has to say. I tried this retroactively with the Iowa State game last year and KOK Bot correctly guessed 65% of the plays. That is pretty good I think, but like I said in my previous post, 65% is not really that predictable. Anyway, I plan on taking on KOK Bot head to head for one of the games next year to see who can predict the real KOK’s play calling more accurately. I’ll be sure to post about it then. Additionally, I plan on updating the formula accordingly when I have more data as more games are played. At some point, I may also try to figure out fourth down situations to determine punt, field goal, or go for it.

If you are interested in the formula and math behind KOK Bot, keep reading. If not, just go ahead and try the KOK Bot.

I split up the formula into 4 parts: Yards to Go by Down, Field Position, Score Margin, and Time Left by Winning/Losing. For each part, I found the correlation between the situation and the percentage of times a pass play is called. For the ease the calculation, I assumed linear relationships for each part. (more yard to go -> more likely to pass; closer to end zone -> less likely to pass; winning by less/losing by more -> more likely to pass; and less time left when losing -> more likely to pass) So, for each situation, I found the “line of best fit” to calculate the chance of pass.
Example: for second down, the chance of passing = 0.0349*Yards to go + 0.497

Then, using the correlations, I weighted each part of the formula accordingly.
Yards to Go by Down = 50%
Field Position = 30%
Score Margin = 15%
Time Left by Winning/Losing = 5%

Lastly, I multiplied the chance of passing for each part by the weight and summed the results to get an overall percent change of passing. To determine if the play will be a pass or run I account for some randomness/unpredictability from KOK, so I have a randomly generated number between 0 and 1. If the number is less than the chance of passing, then KOK Bot says Pass, otherwise it says Run. If you want to see the whole calculation you can view the source of this page and read through the JavaScript.


Down: Yards to Go:
Field Side: Yard Line:
Quarter: Time Left:
Iowa's Score: Opponent's Score:

So far, so good

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Kirk Ferentz sums up the Hawkeyes spring practice in four words, "So far, so good." Adam Rittenberg from ESPN was in Iowa City on Friday and got a chance to talk to Ferentz and some of the players. It sounds like lots of progress is being made, and Ricky Stanzi has stepped up his leadership skills. Also confirmed is DJK's spot in the doghouse. Though he made a lot of big plays in 2008, Ferentz says " there are a lot of things that go on during the game that go unnoticed by the average person watching." Also exciting is the annoucement of 3 night games this year: Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State. Rittenberg also has a good post on the difficult task of replacing Shonn Greene.

A very early look at UNI

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Our FCS friends to the north had a good 2008 season. The Panthers went 12-3, won the Missouri Valley for the second years in a row, went to the national semifinals, and finished ranked 4th in the nation. They had a respectable offense last year averaging 29.2 points per game and a good defense, giving up only 17.7 points per game while blanking two teams. They should have a good team again in 2009 and are Iowa’s first opponent.

Offense: Key Returning Players
UNI returns 9 starters on offense including QB Patrick Grace who passed for over 2,000 yards and ran for another 618 last year while missing 3 games with a knee injury. Other key returnees include WR Josh Collins who had 750 all-purpose yards, and RB Derrick Law who had 786 yards as the backup. The Panthers will also have a very veteran offense line returning 4 starters who will all be seniors.

Offense: Key Losses
Off of UNI’s roster this year is its leading rusher, Corey Lewis. He was second in the Missouri Valley with 1314 yards on the ground. Also gone is the team’s second most productive receive, Johnny Gray who had 728 all-purpose yards.

Defense: Key Returning Players
Only 6 starters return from a solid 2008 unit. The front 7 will be an experienced group led by senior LB Josh Mahoney who had 139 tackles and 3 interceptions. Joining him at linebacker is Jamar Thompson who also had a good year in 2008 with 110 tackles. The defense line is also solid with 3 senior returns. James Ruffin had 18 tackles for loss and 10 sacks last year.

Defense: Key Losses
UNI looses its entire starting secondary from last year. They will need to replace First Team All-Missouri Valley CB Darrell Lloyd, Safeties Curtis Meier and Nick Nelson, and CB Terrell McMoore who had a team leading 4 interception. Also gone is LB DeVeon Harris who had 104 tackles and 3 interception.

For more information on UNI’s 2009 team, check out the spring prospectus.

The (un)predictable Ken O'Keefe

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Ken O’Keefe takes a lot of criticism for being too predictable, too bland, too un-spread-like…When the Hawkeye’s offense struggles, the blame is put on his shoulders and “Fire KOK!” is a popular phrase. For the most part I think he’s doing a good job with the play calling, but I’ll be honest, I’ve had some angry feelings towards the man in the past and have thought the offense was too predictable. But O’Keefe said during the bye week last year, “How would you be able to predict exactly what's going on, even if you had our game plan?" So, that’s the question I’m trying to tackle.

The first, and worst step, was gathering every offense play Iowa ran last year…all 838 of them. I got my data from the Play-by-Play on ESPN and input it into an Excel spreadsheet to start my analysis. I looked at the Down, Yards to Go, Field Position, Time Left in Half/Game, and the Point Spread in relationship to a pass call or a run call and it revealed some interesting trends.

I’ve always thought Iowa was a 1st down – run, 2nd down – run, 3rd down – pass type team. And guess what, it is! On 1st down, the Hawkeyes ran the ball 59% of the time. On 2nd and 3rd down it was 68% and 36% respectively. When it was 2nd and less than 10 yards, Iowa ran the ball 80% of the time.

Another assumption I had was that when Iowa was losing, they would pass more, and when winning would run more. To my surprise, when down, KOK only called for a pass 51% of the time. That’s pretty balanced. On the flip side though, when winning, Iowa ran the ball 60% of the time. The play calling did get more predictable, however, in the fourth quarter. When down, it was 59% passing, and when up, it was 66% run.

And finally, field position…My guess would have been pass more between the 20s, and run when close to either goal line. For the most part this is how it shook out. I split the field into quarters though. Between Iowa’s goal line and the 25, they ran 61% of the time. Between the 25 and 50, it was very balanced with 52% runs. Once getting past midfield, however, the play calling become much more run oriented. Between the opponents 50 and 26, it was 58% runs. And from there to the end zone, 65% of the calls were rushing plays.

Overall, last year was pretty balanced…but with Shonn Greene obviously the numbers tip towards more rushes. The final tally came in at 354 pass plays and 483 run plays. I think there is enough information here to put something together that can predict the play calling with some degree of accuracy (more to come later!) but really, even when it does seem predictable I only have about a 60-65% confidence that I could pick pass or run correctly. And to me, that’s not really predictable.

Some interesting quick facts:

  • When Iowa was up by 7, they ran 26 pass plays and 26 run plays.
  • The most balanced game of the year was against Illinois. 51% pass – 49% run.
  • The least balanced game was the bowl game against South Carolina. 30% pass – 70% run.
  • Iowa likes to get out and establish the run, with more run plays in the first quarter than any other quarter.
  • There was not a single pass play run the 4th quarter against Purdue.
  • Against Penn State, Iowa passed the ball 15 times in the 4th quarter alone…they only ran 15 plays the entire first half.

Kinnick News

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It seems like there is more news out about the stadium than the football team, but this is pretty cool. Kinnick Stadium is being considered to host World Cup soccer games in 2018. The US is just submitting its bid to FIFA right now, but it would be really cool to have the world watching as teams square off in Iowa. Kinnick joins 7 other Big Ten stadiums in the mix: Michigan Stadium, Spartan Stadium, Beaver Stadium, Minnesota's new TCF Bank Stadium, Memorial Stadium, Ohio Stadium, and Camp Randall Stadium. The full list is on the official US Soccer site.

A look at FieldTurf

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The Hawkeyes are jumping on the bandwagon and installing FieldTurf in Kinnick Stadium. Iowa will now be the 7th team in the Big Ten to say goodbye to grass. I’ve always thought that football should be played on a field of grass, but I’m willing to give FieldTurf a chance. There are plenty of arguments over which is better, but what it ultimately comes down to for me is that the home field advantage at Kinnick remains strong. So, I decided to look at two things. First, Iowa’s record on grass versus artificial surfaces over the past 5 years. And second, the home field advantage for teams with grass versus artificial surfaces. I compiled my win-loss data from ESPN and the stadium field surface information from Wikipedia.


Over the past 5 season, Iowa has compiled a 38 and 24 record (61% win percentage). On grass Iowa was 32-17 (65%) and on artificial turf 6-7 (46%). While, it looks like grass is obviously the winner here, really a lot of the grass wins have come when Iowa was at home where Iowa was 26-7 (79%). If we just look at the away and neutral site games, there have been 13 played on turf and 16 on grass. On the turf Iowa was 6-7 (47%) and on grass 6-10 (38%). So, if you take away the home field advantage, Iowa was notably better on the fake stuff.

SiteSurfaceRecordPercent
HomeGrass26-778.8%
AwayGrass3-925.0%
AwayTurf6-650.0%
NuetralGrass3-175.0%
NuetralTurf0-10.0%


On a national scale, I looked at all 119 (didn’t include Western Kentucky, sorry Hilltoppers) Division I FBS schools. I was surprised to find out that 50 schools have FieldTurf installed and only 53 still have natural grass. The other 16 teams have some other variety of artificial turf including AstroPlay and Wyoming’s Desso Challenge Pro 60 Monofilament Synthetic Turf .
In the 2008 season the home record of the 53 teams with grass was 238-130 (65%). In contrast the FieldTurf teams had a home record of 204-127 (61%). The other artificial turf teams where similar at 62-37 (63%). All of the win percentages were pretty close and I’m not sure if a 4% difference is enough to say the having grass is an advantage over FieldTurf.


One interesting thing to note, however, is that the teams non-FieldTurf artificial turf had a poor road record only winning 32%. Compare that to the 43% win percentage shared by FieldTurf and grass teams and it looks pretty bad. To me, this suggests that teams with a unique playing surface have a hard time adjusting to other playing surfaces.

SurfaceHome RecordAway RecordOverall Record
Grass238-130133-173371-303
FieldTurf204-127131-175335-302
Other62-3732-6794-104


In conclusion, well…I’m not sure. After all that data I sifted through it looks like grass and FieldTurf are pretty similar. I think though, that Iowa has proven it can play well on artificial surfaces and can definitely play well in Kinnick. So I hope that FieldTurf and Kinnick is a winning combination and that the Hawks well have lots of success in the years to come.

Spring is here

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Okay...so I'm a little late getting started here. The Hawkeyes started spring practice back on March 25th. Iowa's official website posts practice pictures but not a whole lot of other news is coming out. And, with no spring game this year due to the FieldTurf installment, information about Iowa Football is scarce. However, I'm pushing forward and getting this Hawkeye football blog started.

The 2009 Spring Prospectus is out and has a lot of good information about the program. On page 20 and 21 the depth chart for the offense and defense respectively are listed. Though it is way too early to be worrying about the 2 deeps, there are some position battles that I found interesting.

  • Wide Receiver: Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa's leading receiver last year (44 catches for 639 yards), is listed behind Sandeman. The message boards are pretty sure DJK is in the doghouse as he has been spotted carrying around a trash can during practice. I'm still guessing he'll start against UNI on September 5th.
  • Center: The battle for center right now is between Koeppel and Ferentz. Eubanks, who started at center in 2007, is currently listed at guard, but is probably also in the mix. I thought the coach's son had a good shot at being a starter this fall, but with his latest public intox charge he'll be lucky to see the field at all.
  • Quarterback: Vandenberg currently is in the number 2 spot in front of Wienke.
  • Defensive Line: Neither Clayborn or Ballard are moving inside despite many internet rumors. Klug and Daniels are listed as the starters at tackle for now.

It will be interesting to see if any true freshman will come in shake up the depth chart. Brandon Wegher and Keenan Davis could both have shots. For some some much better analysis than I could provide for each of the position read the Four Downs... series from Marc Morehouse's On Iowa blog.

2009 Iowa Football Schedule

Here is the 2009 Iowa Hawkeyes Football schedule. I will do my best to keep it up to date with the times and results. I'll also keep the TV schedules up to date as they get announced.


DateOpponentTimeTVResult
09/05/09vs. Northern Iowa11:00 AMBTN17-16
09/12/09at Iowa State11:00 AMFSN35-3
09/19/09vs. Arizona2:30 PMABC27-17
09/26/09at Penn State7:00 PMABC21-10
10/03/09vs. Arkansas State11:00 AMESPN 224-21
10/10/09vs. Michigan7:00 PMABC30-28
10/17/09at Wisconsin11:00 AMESPN20-10
10/24/09at Michigan State6:00 PMBTN15-13
10/31/09vs. Indiana11:00 AMESPN42-24
11/07/09vs. Northwestern11:00 AMESPN10-17
11/14/09at Ohio State2:30 PMABC24-27
11/21/09vs. Minnesota11:00 AMESPNW 12-0
01/05/10vs. Georgia Tech7:00 PMFOXW 24-14

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