Iowa Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
| Category | Iowa Offense | Northwestern Defense | Advantage | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | ||
| Rushing Yards | 125.22 | 89 | 122.89 | 49 | WW |
| Passing Yards | 232.22 | 45 | 226.22 | 71 | H |
| Passing Efficiency | 128.80 | 58 | 133.18 | 83 | H |
| Sacks | 2.22 | 74 | 2.33 | 45 | W |
| Total Yards | 357.44 | 74 | 349.11 | 51 | W |
| Scoring | 25.67 | 74 | 24.78 | 68 | - |
| Turnovers | 17 | 80 | 18 | 27 | WWW |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 42.86 | 40 | 36.61 | 49 | - |
| Red Zone % | 85 | 38 | 76 | 31 | - |
I'll admit, I was actually quite shocked when I saw the stats for Northwestern's defense. Considering the unit has gone through 20 starters (9 in the secondary alone), they have played decently. Against the run the Wildcats have been okay with a solid defensive line. They are giving up less than 4 yards per carry, but have struggled the last two weeks against Indiana and Penn State (who averaged 5.9 and 6.0 yards per carry respectively). Obviously Iowa's ground game will rely again on Wegher. He showed last week that he can carry the load and I would expect a similar effort this week.
I don't know what to think about Iowa's passing attack. Looking at the numbers, Stanzi should once again have the advantage facing a mangled Wildcat secondary. As long as it is not windy, I expect Stanzi to put up another big game.
The key here for Iowa is going to be sustaining drives. Northwestern has been good at getting the defense off of the field, either by a turnover or stopping a 3rd down conversion. They have been especially good inside the red zone.
Overall Advantage: the numbers say Northwestern...but with all the injuries you would have to think Iowa.
Iowa Defense vs. Northwestern Offense
| Category | Iowa Defense | Northwestern Offense | Advantage | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | ||
| Rushing Yards | 117.44 | 39 | 121.89 | 94 | HH |
| Passing Yards | 180.11 | 26 | 268.33 | 24 | - |
| Passing Efficiency | 94.25 | 3 | 130.23 | 53 | HHH |
| Sacks | 2.00 | 55 | 2.67 | 94 | HH |
| Total Yards | 297.56 | 19 | 390.22 | 52 | HH |
| Scoring | 15.78 | 13 | 25.67 | 74 | HHH |
| Turnovers | 25 | 4 | 19 | 95 | HHHH |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 34.85 | 31 | 49.34 | 9 | W |
| Red Zone % | 87 | 95 | 85 | 38 | WWW |
Another week with an overwhelming amount of Hs. Northwestern throws for a lot of yards, but that's about it. They don't score a lot of points and they make mistakes at critical times (turnovers and sacks).
Iowa should be able to make Northwestern completely one dimensional as the Wildcat run game has been very inconsistent. They have had injuries at running back, and perhaps the biggest rushing threat, Kafka, may not be 100% with a minor hamstring injury. I would be very surprised if Northwestern ran for over 100 yards.
If Kafka is healthy, he should be able to find open receivers underneath Iowa's zone coverage. However, dinking and dunking will not lead to touchdowns and will not be enough for Northwestern to stay in this game. They will need to take some shots down the field eventually, which will play right into Iowa's strength of the defense.
Overall Advantage: Iowa and it's not even close
Iowa Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams
| Category | Iowa Special Teams | Northwestern Special Teams | Advantage | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | ||
| Kick Returns | 20.63 | 83 | 19.00 | 106 | H |
| Punt Returns | 8.45 | 68 | 6.76 | 83 | H |
| Net Punting | 37.90 | 23 | 32.35 | 108 | HHHHH |
| Field Goal % | 73.7 | 57 | 86.7 | 22 | WW |
Besides last week, Iowa has been rock solid on special teams. Northwestern on the other hand has been really poor. Besides a good place kicker, Stefan Demos who is 13-15, the Wildcats rank near the bottom of the country in the return game and in punting. The "hidden yards" that were talked about so much last week definitely favor Iowa.
Overall Advantage: Iowa
Prediction: It seems like every week I think will be the week that the offense gets it going...and I'll stay true to form this week. Stanzi comes out with something to prove and gets his second 300 yard game in a row. Wegher plays better with a start under his belt and the offense carries the momentum gained in the 4th quarter last week. The defense takes advantage of an ailing Kafka forcing multiple turnovers after giving up an early TD.
Iowa 31 - Northwestern 13